Reliability of decadal predictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Abstract: Future of Decadal Predictions
Decadal climate variability (DCV) has impacted society for centuries, perhaps millennia. There are well-documented episodes of droughts, floods, and tropical storms lasting one or more decades in many parts of the world. It was believed for many centuries that solar and lunar cycles at decadal timescales (~10-20 years) influence the Earth’s climate. This belief led to the development of concept...
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Sensitivity experiments using a coupled model initialized from analysed atmospheric and oceanic observations are used to investigate the potential for interannual-to-decadal predictability. The potential for extending seasonal predictions to longer time scales is explored using the same coupled model configuration and initialization procedure as used for seasonal prediction. It is found that, d...
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As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physi...
متن کاملThe Interpretation and Use of Biases in Decadal Climate Predictions
Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especiall...
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Conditions of use of this publication The full-text of this report may be used under the condition of a correct and full reference to this publication. Abstract In this report the reliability of vibration predictions in civil engineering is quantified. Emphasis is laid on the vibration predictions for road-and rail traffic and vibrations from building activities such as (sheet)pile driving. Sev...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2012gl053354